Safety Analysis

[Rascal]

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blo...owed-safeties/

This analysis clearly shows that the safety that needs to be replaced is....not Rahim Moore who ranked in the top 10 in the NFL, but rather Mike Adams.

Besides covering better, sans Baltimore game , we have more invested in Moore. I can't remember where I read it, but I also remember reading that Moore was one of the better tackling safeties.

Obviously he needs to improve, that can be said for anyone, but I think, walking on a plank here, that we will/need to have him stay at safety and instead focus on replacing Mike Adams.

Oh, it would be nice if we had a MLB who could cover something other than dirt.



TJ,

Please work on adding a smile with somebody hiding behind a couch/brick wall. TIA.

[2KBack]

I've been cursing Mike Adams all year

[gyldenlove]

I think that is somewhat misleading, guys who are tasked with pass coverage will give up more 1st downs and TDs than guys who have to move up and play the run more regularly. Mike Adams was asked to do a lot of pass coverage this year (and he is bad at it) so he would give up a lot of plays, Moore was mostly asked to read the run and play some simple zone coverage which means he was not going to be targeted nearly as much.

[MagicHef]

Was this not obvious already? Are there really any people that think Moore should be replaced?

[Requiem]

Mike Adams had a few clutch plays, but he played like dog piss most of the time. This could have been Rahim's first year in the NFL had he stayed in school. He gets more than two years, (especially with his rookie one being a shorter off-season) to prove whether or not he is worth it. A lot of people rally hard against him, mainly because people see Mediator's thoughts on him and think it's gospel, but I think that is a pretty obtuse way of going about it.

Denver would be wise to get a DB or two in this draft to help compete for the future. Not sure who is available in FA.

[McDman]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

Was this not obvious already? Are there really any people that think Moore should be replaced?

Where hsve you been? People have been breaking out and calling for him to be cut.

[sgbfan]

Don't give up on any high draft pick after only 2 years, especially if he has been improving (and I doubt anyone argues that he didn't improve from his rookie year). Hopefully Carter comes back healthy and can help. Adams was not great, and Leonard is only getting older. Bring in a 3rd or 4th round pick to compete with Carter and Moore, and if he gets beat out, fine, but don't just give up on him.

Adams was not great. He was surprisingly good in the playoff game, but for most of the season he was getting beat, a lot. Keep him for depth if you want (don't know how it would affect the cap) but he shouldn't get significant playing time.

[MagicHef]

Originally Posted by McDman

Where hsve you been? People have been breaking out and calling for him to be cut.

Yeah, and people have called for Peyton to retire and Fox to be fired. I assumed the calls for Moore to get cut were along the same lines.

[TheReverend]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

Yeah, and people have called for Peyton to retire and Fox to be fired. I assumed the calls for Moore to get cut were along the same lines.

The lines were "idiocy", and yes, you're right, it is along those same lines.

[MagicHef]

Moore was 9th out of 59 safties that played at least half of their defense's plays in yards allowed per coverage snap.

9th out of 59. Top ten.

Adams? 51st.

[outdoor_miner]

Originally Posted by gyldenlove

I think that is somewhat misleading, guys who are tasked with pass coverage will give up more 1st downs and TDs than guys who have to move up and play the run more regularly. Mike Adams was asked to do a lot of pass coverage this year (and he is bad at it) so he would give up a lot of plays, Moore was mostly asked to read the run and play some simple zone coverage which means he was not going to be targeted nearly as much.

This was the first thing I thought when I read this. I imagine a guy like Moore who is playing deep center field or helping in run support will do much better in this stat than the guy who is covering TEs one on one all over the field.

[Mediator12]

Well, Since rascal moved this from the draft forum to here, i'll copy and paste this.

It is one thing to look at stats to see how people performed, however it NEVER tells you why. Why comes from watching the tape and seeing what actually happened and several people have already alluded to it here.

Moore did not have poor stats on the year, no one disputes that. However, the WHY is not that he played good enough to earn those stats. Teams attacked DEN underneath for most of the year as they feared a lethal pass rush and Moore played a ton of the deep safety. The guy who really got picked on was Mike Adams as you can plainly see in that article, because he drew the man under assignments that teams attacked. If Moore was all that and a bag of chips in coverage, HE would have been the guy to play the man underneath coverage like he did at UCLA.

However, there is a reason JDR let Adams play that coverage instead of the younger, quicker and more talented Moore. Moore has absolutely terrible instincts playing man coverage and has really poor technique when he has to flip and run. There is no way a DC with JDR's chops allows Adams to get beaten like a drum if Moore is the better cover player. These guys watch 30-40 hours of film a week for goodness sake and would make the adjustments.

What happened in the Playoffs versus BAL, was Caldwell figured out how to block the pass rush and expose Moore and the rest of the secondary with the deep ball from Flacco. That is Flacco's best Weapon. He is just average with the short and intermediate throws.

Moore's absolutely terrible technique, and awful preparation for the long balls got exposed and that is Why Milus was fired. He failed to clean up the safety's execution on very simple deep coverages. Just because other teams failed to have the right OL to exploit those weaknesses, does not make Moore a credible FS in coverage.

Now, is Moore a terrible FS. NO. Should they immediately replace him? NO. However, someone should be drafted to challenge his ass and put pressure on him to fix his poor technique and sloppy preparation mentally. Kid has talent, but so did Taylor Mays and he is twice the athlete Moore will ever be.

The thing is, Moore did NOT play a lot of the slot or man underneath coverages at UCLA either. From my own notes on him coming out it said he lacked man coverage instincts and techniques, but was a ballhawk in college due to keeping his eyes in the backfield too long and taking advantage of poor College QB decisons. He has not been a playmaker at FS in the NFL yet, but people defend him like he has Ed Reed playmaking ability. To me, he looks like a slower Taylor Mays on film. Not a budding Ed reed.

[HILife]

Originally Posted by sgbfan

Don't give up on any high draft pick after only 2 years, especially if he has been improving (and I doubt anyone argues that he didn't improve from his rookie year). Hopefully Carter comes back healthy and can help. Adams was not great, and Leonard is only getting older. Bring in a 3rd or 4th round pick to compete with Carter and Moore, and if he gets beat out, fine, but don't just give up on him.

Adams was not great. He was surprisingly good in the playoff game, but for most of the season he was getting beat, a lot. Keep him for depth if you want (don't know how it would affect the cap) but he shouldn't get significant playing time.

Alphonso Smith

[TheReverend]

Originally Posted by Mediator12

Well, Since rascal moved this from the draft forum to here, i'll copy and paste this.

It is one thing to look at stats to see how people performed, however it NEVER tells you why. Why comes from watching the tape and seeing what actually happened and several people have already alluded to it here.

Moore did not have poor stats on the year, no one disputes that. However, the WHY is not that he played good enough to earn those stats. Teams attacked DEN underneath for most of the year as they feared a lethal pass rush and Moore played a ton of the deep safety. The guy who really got picked on was Mike Adams as you can plainly see in that article, because he drew the man under assignments that teams attacked. If Moore was all that and a bag of chips in coverage, HE would have been the guy to play the man underneath coverage like he did at UCLA.

Not even remotely true...

1. I'm not sure I ever saw him play there

2. We all know, and everyone always knew, he was drafted to play centerfield



^ Definitely mute it and FF a min or so (first minute is mostly run stuffing)

Originally Posted by Mediator12

However, there is a reason JDR let Adams play that coverage instead of the younger, quicker and more talented Moore. Moore has absolutely terrible instincts playing man coverage and has really poor technique when he has to flip and run. There is no way a DC with JDR's chops allows Adams to get beaten like a drum if Moore is the better cover player. These guys watch 30-40 hours of film a week for goodness sake and would make the adjustments.

They played the quicker and more talented Moore there because it's much more valuable than the underneath and inside. The same reason they've often played Leonhard (of all people) in that same underneath role.

Originally Posted by Mediator12

What happened in the Playoffs versus BAL, was Caldwell figured out how to block the pass rush and expose Moore and the rest of the secondary with the deep ball from Flacco. That is Flacco's best Weapon. He is just average with the short and intermediate throws.

Simply not true. Most of their deep ball success was against Bailey without help over the top--and he's the one who requested that.

Moore whiffed on a Hail Mary... hardly something Caldwell had gameplanned at all.

Originally Posted by Mediator12

Moore's absolutely terrible technique, and awful preparation for the long balls got exposed and that is Why Milus was fired. He failed to clean up the safety's execution on very simple deep coverages. Just because other teams failed to have the right OL to exploit those weaknesses, does not make Moore a credible FS in coverage.

Now, is Moore a terrible FS. NO. Should they immediately replace him? NO. However, someone should be drafted to challenge his ass and put pressure on him to fix his poor technique and sloppy preparation mentally. Kid has talent, but so did Taylor Mays and he is twice the athlete Moore will ever be.

Originally Posted by Mediator12

The thing is, Moore did NOT play a lot of the slot or man underneath coverages at UCLA either. From my own notes on him coming out it said he lacked man coverage instincts and techniques, but was a ballhawk in college due to keeping his eyes in the backfield too long and taking advantage of poor College QB decisons. He has not been a playmaker at FS in the NFL yet, but people defend him like he has Ed Reed playmaking ability. To me, he looks like a slower Taylor Mays on film. Not a budding Ed reed.

This is just crazy stuff. The only way any of this is grounded in reality is that he showed lackluster ball skills this past season.

[Mediator12]

Originally Posted by TheReverend

Not even remotely true...

1. I'm not sure I ever saw him play there

2. We all know, and everyone always knew, he was drafted to play centerfield



^ Definitely mute it and FF a min or so (first minute is mostly run stuffing)



They played the quicker and more talented Moore there because it's much more valuable than the underneath and inside. The same reason they've often played Leonhard (of all people) in that same underneath role.



Simply not true. Most of their deep ball success was against Bailey without help over the top--and he's the one who requested that.

Moore whiffed on a Hail Mary... hardly something Caldwell had gameplanned at all.



This is just crazy stuff. The only way any of this is grounded in reality is that he showed lackluster ball skills this past season.

The second part of my post was not there when you commented on the UCLA placement. It got deleted for some reason, board is acting weird recently and half the stuff I post needs editing.

As for the technique issues, I stand by them. I reveiewed it with dad and he concurred. He also corrected me that it was Tampa 2, not Cover three deep and that is why Carter looked so surprised when Moore failed to stay behind Jones.....Carter had underneath and sideline coverage to keep any balls in bounds.

[MagicHef]

So, when a safety doesn't get thrown at much, it's because he's bad and the DC is 'hiding' him, but when a corner doesn't get thrown at much, it's because he's good? Moore played more snaps in coverage (691 vs. 601) but was thrown at less (27 vs. 58).

Also, with all this talk of deep balls, I can't help but remember Schaub throwing over our entire defense to a wide open WR. Who was the deep safety there?

[Rohirrim]

I no longer am in the camp that wants to just cut Moore.





I want to tape him to the goalpost and aim the jugs at him.

[Mediator12]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

So, when a safety doesn't get thrown at much, it's because he's bad and the DC is 'hiding' him, but when a corner doesn't get thrown at much, it's because he's good? Moore played more snaps in coverage (691 vs. 601) but was thrown at less (27 vs. 58).

Also, with all this talk of deep balls, I can't help but remember Schaub throwing over our entire defense to a wide open WR. Who was the deep safety there?

That is a gross oversimplification of why. I laid it out plain and simple, and not matter how snarkey you are in your reply it does not change it. Champ got abused in that game too. However, some of those were real poor route adjustments by the safeties as well. I am still breaking them down with an expert and trying to see what really happened there. Once I get it done I'll post it. However, he is not as available right now as I wish he was.

[MagicHef]

Originally Posted by Mediator12

That is a gross oversimplification of why. I laid it out plain and simple, and not matter how snarkey you are in your reply it does not change it. Champ got abused in that game too. However, some of those were real poor route adjustments by the safeties as well. I am still breaking them down with an expert and trying to see what really happened there. Once I get it done I'll post it. However, he is not as available right now as I wish he was.

So, based on your assessment of the safety play, the average yards per pass completion between the two should be fairly different, right? Adams has to take all the underneath stuff and Moore gets to chill out deep? A pass completed on Adams should be significantly shorter than a pass completed on Moore.

[TheReverend]

Originally Posted by Mediator12

The second part of my post was not there when you commented on the UCLA placement. It got deleted for some reason, board is acting weird recently and half the stuff I post needs editing.

As for the technique issues, I stand by them. I reveiewed it with dad and he concurred. He also corrected me that it was Tampa 2, not Cover three deep and that is why Carter looked so surprised when Moore failed to stay behind Jones.....Carter had underneath and sideline coverage to keep any balls in bounds.

The last bit is extremely possible. I've been bit by the same thing looking like an idiot jogging behind someone because of blown coverage by the safety and no one to play on in my zone.

If that's the case though... shame on JDR for calling a 2-deep defense in that situation.

The rest I'm still not buying, unless we're basing his entire season off of that one play. In that case, yes, terrible technique, ball skills, etc.

[sgbfan]

Originally Posted by HILife

Alphonso Smith

I should never say never. Alphonso Smith is the exception. He was a horrible pick to begin with. Even then, he had a decent year for the Lions in 2010. If they got a good trade for Moore, then fine, but I doubt they would get anything of value. How many people wanted to cut Moreno and Ayers the last few years? At the least Moore will be a serviceable safety, at most a pretty good one.

Edit: Looking back at the 2009 draft, anyone McDaniels picked is the exception. So everyone wanting to get rid of Moreno and Ayers, you are forgiven.

[Mediator12]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

So, based on your assessment of the safety play, the average yards per pass completion between the two should be fairly different, right? Adams has to take all the underneath stuff and Moore gets to chill out deep? A pass completed on Adams should be significantly shorter than a pass completed on Moore.

No. That is not how it works.

Teams attacked the Middle of the field and that is where Adams get abused. He got worked in the intermediate game and also missed tackles. So, he gave up a bunch of yardage as well.

The throws that got completed against Moore were not deep at all. In fact, in the regular season no one was more adept at keeping passing offenses from getting the deep ball completed than DEN. That is why I am so disgusted with the four deep balls in the playoff game. That was atypical of their regular season performance.

There are no simple stats in football, despite what Profootball Focus and Football outsiders produce. It tells you what happened, nowhere near why. That is why I still look at what actually happened. The stats do not tell you it was a blown coverage, in fact they would still say that the closest player got beat and accredit that to his "stats". When in fact, it was a blown coverage and miscommunication was the reason for success, not a coverage failure.

Those 2 sites are worthwhile to see what happened and how effective certain things are, but I never trust their analysis ever. All too often, they ascribe arbitrary and objective credit when its a subjective causation. Certain sports like baseball can be viewed 2 dimensionally. Football not so much.

[cmhargrove]

Let's face it, if Moore hadn't misjudged that last deep pass we wouldn't be having this discussion. We all knew Moore was a work in progress and the kid took a significant jump on that progress this year. He was a much better tackler this year and was involved quite a bit in our defensive success (the whole top 5 ranking deal).

If he doesn't **** his pants on that last deep ball, everyone would just recognize he is coming along nicely and still has room for growth and improvement. I hope it makes him work that much harder to improve this offseason.

Adams, on the other hand, has such significant physical limitations that I doubt his ability to improve at all (regardless of the circumstances). Hopefully, Carter comes back healthy and takes the spot from him, or we address the SS spot in the offseason.

[Mediator12]

Originally Posted by TheReverend

The last bit is extremely possible. I've been bit by the same thing looking like an idiot jogging behind someone because of blown coverage by the safety and no one to play on in my zone.

If that's the case though... shame on JDR for calling a 2-deep defense in that situation.

The rest I'm still not buying, unless we're basing his entire season off of that one play. In that case, yes, terrible technique, ball skills, etc.

Look at the all 22 footage, they show the replay from Flacco's view right after the score. I mistakenly thought it was cover 3 and Moore had the deep middle. However, watch the middle of the field and see that Leonard is deep middle like a Mike and Bruton and Moore have deep outside coverages.

I asked Dad to help since he had time. We both were unimpressed with his hip flip and reading route combinations on deep coverages all year. Rarely did he draw a man under assignment all year. Its just what I saw when I went back and watched.

[Bmore Manning]

I think a draft pick or FA competition is necessary for both safety positions. Though a healthy Carter may improve one of the positions.

Can you honestly look at Moore's play and say he's a ball hawk, he makes impact plays, he's the guy I want patrolling the back half of the field..? I think he should have to earn every second of playing time going forward..