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Old 12-11-2012, 03:14 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by Kaylore View Post
Forcing fumbles isn't luck. Recovering them has been show to be so.
Whether or not recovering fumbles is pure dumb luck, or not, the more fumbles you force, the more you will recover (which is why the Patriots practice it so much).

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Originally Posted by rugbythug View Post
And if next year this falls to league avg has he stopped coaching it?
If doing a certain activity (like practicing forcing fumbles for x amount of time), is proven to help you win games...then why would you stop doing it?

It could be that the rest of the league practices ball security more leading up to games against the Patriots...equalling out the advantage that Belicheat would have gained...which is when he will start spending more time practicing other ways to beat you, and less time practicing forcing fumbles. It's all about opportunity costs, and the law of decreasing marginal returns. Some of it is based on your opponent (and their preparation), and some of it isn't.
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Old 12-11-2012, 03:17 PM   #27
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Thank you for being here to tell us what Lonestar will probably say.
He Seems a bit OCD to me.
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Old 12-11-2012, 04:35 PM   #28
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Was just looking at some stats. NE has a pretty middling defense, but have forced 31 fumbles, recovering 19, which is 2 more recoveries than we have FFs, and we're at the top of the NFL in FFs. Just one of those years when an average defense becomes elite because they can force turnovers.
What's weird is I never see them really doing anything that actually "forces" turnovers. At least no more than other teams. The way teams turnover the ball against them is really hard for me to understand. I'm tempted to call it luck.
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Old 12-11-2012, 04:39 PM   #29
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Forcing fumbles isn't luck. Recovering them has been show to be so.
Outside of actual strips or hard hits that pop the ball out, I'm hard-pressed to agree with you on this. If an opposing back or receiver isn't practicing good ball security and a routine tackle causes a fumble, your defense lucked out. If a QB laterals the ball like **** and you are able to jump on the loose ball, your defense lucked out. A lot of fumbles aren't really "forced", let's be honest. They're just the offense ****ing up.
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Old 12-11-2012, 04:46 PM   #30
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Originally Posted by Agamemnon View Post
Outside of actual strips or hard hits that pop the ball out, I'm hard-pressed to agree with you on this. If an opposing back or receiver isn't practicing good ball security and a routine tackle causes a fumble, your defense lucked out. If a QB laterals the ball like **** and you are able to jump on the loose ball, your defense lucked out. A lot of fumbles aren't really "forced", let's be honest. They're just the offense ****ing up.
I tend to agree, but the Pats seem to always do it, year after year, so there might be something to it. What always annoys me is how teams never seem to bring their A-game against them. And im not talking about getting their ass kicked, im talking about dropping passes, missing wide open guys. Hell, even McGahee dropped that wide open 4th and 1 against them
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Old 12-11-2012, 06:10 PM   #31
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I tend to agree, but the Pats seem to always do it, year after year, so there might be something to it. What always annoys me is how teams never seem to bring their A-game against them. And im not talking about getting their ass kicked, im talking about dropping passes, missing wide open guys. Hell, even McGahee dropped that wide open 4th and 1 against them
I would beleive that since they are the team to beat more pressure is on NOT to make mistakes.

The more the veteran team, with constants in the front office, (the same coaching staff for more than a year) the better the odds of coaching more advanced principles than the basics most of this year year for us has been.

While hanging on to the seems basic, loads more pressure to do so, means trying to hard sometimes.

Whereas the Pats have been doing it for going on a decade with only the very newbies with butter fingers. Even then it is not a new scheme AGAIN this year for everyone.
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Old 12-11-2012, 06:29 PM   #32
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Teams that hustle get more fumbe recoveries. Pats always are running after the play, they hustle, they get recoveries.

Then the flip side is luck also plays into it.
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Old 12-11-2012, 06:47 PM   #33
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Denver's 8 game winning streak:

1. Chargers
2. Saints
3. Bengals
4. Panthers
5. Chargers
6. Chiefs
7. Bucs
8. Raiders

Other wins:

1. Oak
2. Pitt

Losess:

1. Texans
2. Falcons
3. Pats

Exactly how many Playoff caliber teams have we faced...and how many of those teams have we beat

Look, stats are stats....but, I wouldn't put much into our rankings until we start playing playoff teams.
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Old 12-11-2012, 08:37 PM   #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hamrob View Post
Denver's 8 game winning streak:

1. Chargers
2. Saints
3. Bengals
4. Panthers
5. Chargers
6. Chiefs
7. Bucs
8. Raiders

Other wins:

1. Oak
2. Pitt

Losess:

1. Texans
2. Falcons
3. Pats

Exactly how many Playoff caliber teams have we faced...and how many of those teams have we beat

Look, stats are stats....but, I wouldn't put much into our rankings until we start playing playoff teams.
We lost to the Falcons and the Texans by six points each in Peyton's first three games with the team (and it took him throwing 3 picks in the one quarter for us to lose to the Falcons), and I think everybody would agree that this team has only gotten better since then.

One of the wild cards is almost certainly going to the Steelers or the Bengals, and we beat both of them.

The only two teams to beat the Falcons this year are the Saints and the Panthers, and we dominated both of them. Plus, the Buccaneers have been in contention for a playoff spot for most of the season until recently, so they're playoff-caliber.

I dislike the argument that we haven't beaten anybody. The Patriots lost to Seattle, Baltimore, and Arizona(!) and were this close to losing to Buffalo and the Jets, it's not like their schedule has been a gauntlet either.
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Old 12-12-2012, 09:26 AM   #35
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I prefer to look at these stats after all the games have been played in a week *cough*Baja*cough*

Scoring > yardage because points count and yards don't.
Total yardage is an overrated stat but an underated one is something I've never seen the NFL chart at all...that's how many yards did the offense gain as a percentage of total yards needed to score a TD on every possession. In other words, if you get the ball 10 times and the average field position is your own 30 yard line then there are 700 total yards available to gain if you scored a TD every time. How much of that total is gained is a significant stat while total yardage without that information can be missleading.
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Old 12-12-2012, 09:35 AM   #36
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I wouldn't put too much into that atl game. Manning just getting used to playing again, admitting he had road jitters? It showed with the forced TOs. And still almost pulled it out.

The team has to play turnover free football against great teams.
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Old 12-12-2012, 09:44 AM   #37
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Originally Posted by footstepsfrom#27 View Post
Total yardage is an overrated stat but an underated one is something I've never seen the NFL chart at all...that's how many yards did the offense gain as a percentage of total yards needed to score a TD on every possession. In other words, if you get the ball 10 times and the average field position is your own 30 yard line then there are 700 total yards available to gain if you scored a TD every time. How much of that total is gained is a significant stat while total yardage without that information can be missleading.
That's actually a great point. If someone scores a couple TD's when they got their ball back on a defensive turnover on their opponent's 20, it's not the same as the long drive from your own five. Manning has had both this year. They could flip it the other way to and grade a defense higher for stopping a team from a TD when their offense fumbled the ball in their own redzone.
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Old 12-12-2012, 10:00 AM   #38
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That's actually a great point. If someone scores a couple TD's when they got their ball back on a defensive turnover on their opponent's 20, it's not the same as the long drive from your own five. Manning has had both this year. They could flip it the other way to and grade a defense higher for stopping a team from a TD when their offense fumbled the ball in their own redzone.
This is why special teams as the forgotten third leg of a complete team are an under appreciated part of the game. It's a game of field position more than anything.
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Old 12-12-2012, 10:26 AM   #39
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I believe Denver's Red Zone offense and defense is only middle of the pack with the offense scoring a RZ TD every 56%. That number need to be higher come playoff time. last 3 games Denver is only at 40 %.
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Old 12-12-2012, 04:18 PM   #40
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NE defense reminds me of the Broncos D in 2005. They created a ton of turnovers int he season and their playoff game against Brady. When the defense failed to generate a turnover against Pittsburgh they were mauled on 3rd down

I could see NE defense suffer the same fate. Don't turn the ball over and play NE straight up

Last night that bogus PI really took the momentum from HOUS and placed it right back on NE . Really a turnover as it allowed NE to continue a drive
If Denver does not turn the ball over or wins the turnover battle they will win the SB.
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